Learn what my predictions are for operating systems in the next two decades.
Episode #12-18 released on December 24, 2021
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Linux is, typically, free and can be installed on most computers without too much trouble. However, many distributions of Linux have a significant learning curve and are not typically supported by software developers. This is changing, sure, but the majority of computer end users opt for windows, to the tune of 3 in every 4 installations, compared to only 1 in every 50 installations for Linux. And, things are not getting better for Linux, despite the push for Linux, and open source, and a growing market share.
See the issue is how we treat the question of Linux versus Windows; we have to ignore the entire reality of the end user. Many of us have many devices in our home, and not all of them are classified as a personal computer in a tradition sense. If we take the entire device ecosystem into account, Android is installed on 4 devices for every 10 in our possession. Windows only accounts for 1 in every 3 devices, iOS is present in half the devices that Windows exists in, but Linux is, almost forgotten.
When you are designing Video games today, and not writing for a console, you are aiming for Windows, iOS, and Android. When you make software for the masses, you, also, focus on Windows, iOS, and Android, too. In fact, the more goes by, the more traditionally PC software solutions become available to Android and iOS. The combination of both Android and iOS amounts to more than 50% market share, and that means the days of Linux are not just numbered, but at some point, so is Windows' days, too.
Given the change in market share over the last two decades, we can expect Windows to be present but fading in next decade and non-existent in two days unless a serious overhaul of the platform is done.
And what does this mean for Linux? Well, unless it becomes prebuilt into mobile devices, easier to install, or more software is made for it, it will never extend pass the server and enthusiasts side.
Linux is great, free and can have a lot of benefits, but Windows is simply easier to use, and mobile devices are far less expensive to replace in the current market.
And, in response to my question, will Linux ever take over Windows in market share, the answer is no. If anything, the world is moving towards a Google Centric Era where Microsoft will disappear, and Linux will still remain behind the scenes. What Google will look like in two decades remains to be seen, and how will privacy evolve until that point, too.
Host : Steve Smith | Music : | Editor : Steve Smith | Producer : Zed Axis Dot Net